Security on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia: North Korean Provocations and the Challenges to the ROK-US Alliance

Hello, today we will explore the current situation in South and North Korea in the midst of frequent military conflicts worldwide. The Korean Peninsula has been divided into North and South since 1950, with North Korea continuing its pursuit of nuclear and missile development. In response, South Korea and the United States have been pursuing a policy of dialogue and pressure, but North Korea has refused to engage in negotiations and has continued its provocations. Additionally, the security environment in Northeast Asia has become more precarious due to tensions between the US and China, as well as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In this article, we will examine key diplomatic and security issues that have arisen in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia this year and provide an outlook for the future.

Security on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia: North Korean Provocations and the Challenges to the ROK-US Alliance

North Korea's Record-Breaking Missile Launches

 

This year, North Korea conducted a record-breaking 31 missile tests, firing a total of 63 ballistic missiles. Starting from early in the year with the test of a hypersonic missile on January 5th, North Korea launched a variety of missiles, including the KN-23, KN-24, and the massive KN-25 artillery rocket. Notably, during the intense period of the South Korea-US joint air exercise "Vigilant Storm" from October 31st to November 5th, North Korea conducted over 30 missile launches. One of these missiles landed south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), marking the first time since the Korean War that North Korean missiles had fallen south of the NLL. North Korea also conducted 8 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches, including the successful launch of the Hwaseong-17, which reached an altitude of 6100 kilometers. During this period, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a high-profile appearance alongside his daughter, drawing international attention.

 

Critics have argued that North Korea's repeated military demonstrations have escalated tensions on the Korean Peninsula, fostering a false dichotomy of "war vs. peace." Former Unification Minister Kang In-deok, who is now a professor at Kyungnam University, commented that "North Korea believes it needs nuclear weapons and ICBMs to maintain internal cohesion and prevent foreign interference, especially when its economy is already in shambles." He also suggested that North Korea may have made the mistaken judgment that strengthening its nuclear capabilities is the "correct answer" after observing the situation in Ukraine.

Security on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia: North Korean Provocations and the Challenges to the ROK-US Alliance

The Yoon Suk-yeol Administration and the Restoration of the ROK-US Alliance

 

In the presidential election held in March, Yoon Suk-yeol, representing the People's Power Party, was elected as South Korea's 20th president. Yoon's victory marked a significant shift in the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula. Notably, just 11 days after taking office in May, President Yoon held the earliest-ever summit meeting with US President Joe Biden. The administration has been committed to strengthening the ROK-US alliance, not only as a foundation for Korean Peninsula security but also as a "global comprehensive strategic partnership" covering all aspects, including traditional military security, economics, technology, and shared values.

 

The Yoon administration has kept the door open for dialogue with North Korea but has taken a firm stance against provocations. It has proposed a "bold plan" that promises gradual incentives in response to North Korean denuclearization efforts and has firmly opposed North Korea's legalization of its nuclear arsenal. This approach has naturally led to the restoration of the ROK-US alliance, with measures such as the resumption and enhancement of joint military exercises and the activation of US strategic assets. The joint South Korea-US exercise "Ulchi Freedom Guardian" held from August 22 to September 1 was seen as a symbolic step in strengthening and restoring the alliance.

 

Park Byung-kwang, director of the International Cooperation Center at the National Institute for Security and Strategy, noted that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is actively pursuing the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance as a "global comprehensive strategic partnership." He also emphasized that "China is likely to feel significant pressure and concerns," and as a result, there is an increased need for strengthening trilateral cooperation in the security domain, involving South Korea, the US, and Japan, as well as encouraging security cooperation involving North Korea, China, and Russia.

Security on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia: North Korean Provocations and the Challenges to the ROK-US Alliance

The Emergence of a New Cold War: "ROK-US-Japan vs. North Korea-China-Russia"

 

The ongoing escalation of tensions between the US and China is another critical factor in the region. The US has been exerting pressure on China in various areas, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and human rights, while China strongly opposes US interference. In this context, South Korea, the US, and Japan have been enhancing their cooperation as democratic allies, while North Korea, China, and Russia are demonstrating solidarity as a community of shared interests in security and economics. This has led to the emergence of a new geopolitical dynamic in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, often characterized as a "ROK-US-Japan vs. North Korea-China-Russia" rivalry.

 

Kim Tae-woo, a professor of international relations at Kookmin University, pointed out that "the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are the regions most affected by the escalating US-China tensions." He emphasized the need to alleviate US-China tensions and resume dialogue with North Korea for the sake of achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Security on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia: North Korean Provocations and the Challenges to the ROK-US Alliance

In Conclusion

 

In the midst of frequent military conflicts worldwide, we have examined the current situation in South and North Korea. North Korea continues to pursue nuclear and missile development while engaging in provocations. South Korea, under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, is working to strengthen and restore the ROK-US alliance. Furthermore, the security environment in Northeast Asia has become more precarious due to the US-China tensions and Russia's actions in Ukraine, leading to the emergence of a new geopolitical dynamic in the region, characterized by a "ROK-US-Japan vs. North Korea-China-Russia" rivalry. To achieve peace on the Korean Peninsula, it is essential to de-escalate US-China tensions and resume dialogue with North Korea. This concludes the blog post titled "Security on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia: North Korean Provocations and the Challenges to the ROK-US Alliance." Thank you.